May 2008 Update – 463% Increase of Troubled Home Sellers Since October 2007
Alright everyone, instead of listing everything individually, I decided to gather the data of all current listings for San Mateo County from the MLS today and see how many are in trouble. I am also providing the raw data I have in .csv format here.
City of Atherton
Only one listing in Atherton, and that’s 199 Selby Ln. This one is supposedly pending with release now after being on the market for quite a while.
City of Belmont
Six listings total in Belmont that are selling for less than their last sale prices.
Raw data available: belmont531.csv
City of Brisbane
There are only three condos that are selling for under their last prices.
They are: 311 Swallowtail Ct, 233 Swallowtail Ct, & 115 Elfin Ct #U611
City of Burlingame
Four properties in Burlingame are listing below their last sale price. One of them has just been listed 11 days ago.
Raw data available: burlingame531.csv
City of Colma
It seems like every distressed property is on B Street. The four properties are listed below in the spreadsheet.
Raw data available: colma531.csv
City of Daly City
This is probably the city with the most inventory since there are 600+ listings in the area right now. 84 made the list and that is not so bad percentage wise.
Some highlights include 592 Abbot Ave, which has been on the market for 300+ days and suffered price cuts totaling 200k+. There is also 650 St. Francis Blvd, which is now under pending without release. It is more than 300k off its last sale price in 2005. Considering the pure glut of supply in Daly City I think prices will fall further there.
Raw data available: dalycity531.csv
City of East Palo Alto
Many homes in East Palo Alto are now foreclosures. Currently 87 properties are on the list. Many of these homes are 40 to 50% off or more. Granted, many of them are quite scary. The top loser currently in terms of dollar amount is 2737 Georgetown St which is now $380k off its last sale price. It seems like the bank that owns it is still aggressively slashing the price.
Raw data available: epa531.csv
City of Foster City
I think all of the 13 properties in Foster City are condos and townhouses. They are still overpriced and the general price cuts aren’t very huge.
Raw data available: fostercity531.csv
City of Half Moon Bay
Half Moon Bay also had 13 properties in trouble. Considering that there are only a total of around 70 properties. This is approximately 20%.
Raw data available: hmb531.csv
City of Hillsborough
The mansion at 180 Robin Rd is still for sale for 950k under its 2001 price. This is the only one I found in Hillsborough.
City of Menlo Park
There are 14 properties in the list, but I think some of the really hard hit parts are actually in North Fair Oaks, but the zip code is shared with Menlo.
Raw data available: menlo531.csv
City of Millbrae
Millbrae fared better than a lot of other cities in the area and only had 7 distressed properties. The biggest loser is 254 Barclay, which is now pending. It was last sold for 1.2 million in 2006 and is now listed at 850k.
Raw data available: millbrae531.csv
City of Pacifica
Pacifica currently has 37 listings that are lower than their last sale price. The most drastic haircut is on 397 Lynbrook. This home was just listed today and it’s $310k off its last price.
Raw data available: pacifica531.csv
City of Redwood City
Redwood City is also full of home sellers in trouble and weighs in with 73 properties. Quite a few of the biggest losers are in the zip code 94063 near the 101, but there are exceptions like this mansion at 668 Vista Ct. Redwood City has a little over 300 active listings so this is more than 20%.
Raw data available: rwc531.csv
City of San Bruno
This mostly industrial city has a lot of condos and some single family homes. Today it has 61 home sellers in trouble.
Raw data available: sanbruno531.csv
City of San Carlos
San Carlos is probably the most popular city in the Mid-Peninsula, and that’s probably why there are only 8 out of 110 properties that are in trouble. Still, these properties are quite expensive, and a few of them are right next to Caltrain. However, as the inventory piles up in this lovely little town the prices might go down in the future.
Raw data available: sancarlos531.csv
City of San Mateo
Most of the troubled homes in San Mateo are still in the Shoreview neighborhood, but there are some in the Beresford Park and downtown areas.
Current number of home sellers in trouble: 69
Longest days on market: 436 days - 369 Claremont
Raw data file: sanmateo531.csv.
City of South San Francisco
South City might be the winner for the city with most home sellers in trouble with a total of 89. It seems that a lot of the troubled homes are condominiums.
Raw data file: ssf531.csv
City of Woodside
The one short sale at 855 Canada is now supposedly pending without release. My friend who offered on this home said the bank took its sweet time in evaluating offers.
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Lets add it all up, there are 575 home sellers in trouble! These are just the listings on MLS and doesn’t include some of the for sale by owner or Craigslist listings. In October 2007 I started this series and I scoured all of San Mateo county and found only 102 home sellers in trouble. This means that in less than 8 months the number of home sellers in trouble rose 463%!! A lot of these home sellers fell into trouble because they initially listed their homes for too much. Then a lot of homes foreclosed this year and further pushed down the price. As you can see the popular areas like Belmont and San Carlos are still faring pretty well, but as inventory gathers up, they may not be invulnerable. In October I said that that was just the beginning of the fall, and now I have to say that I think we are nowhere near the end. It will take time for buyers to absorb all of this inventory, and more REOs may come on the market during this time. For the most part, I still think that a lot of areas are very overvalued. For example, my area of Redwood City is still averaging $570+ per square foot, and that is quite ridiculous. Until next time, be careful before you plunge into the real estate market!
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Just wanted to point out that all but the first two properties listed under Menlo Park are actually East Menlo Park (i.e., east of 101). None of these properties are actually in North Fair Oaks.